FTN Analytics – Pennsylvania

FTN Analytics – Pennsylvania

Also known as the Keystone State, Pennsylvania may prove vital to the success or failure of Donald Trump’s presidential ambitions. Ranked sixth in population and worth 20 electoral votes, the state has long been one of the Democratic Parties most valuable bulwarks. Since 1988, this state has reliably voted Democrat in every presidential contest, thanks to a highly conflicted White voting bloc, in combination with a dark blue minority electorate. Donald Trump, however, presents what we here at FTN consider a winning strategy, which may well pose a challenge to this hitherto successful coalition, namely a successful courtship of White working class voters. If he’s done it correctly, we may witness the state falling into the Republican column, much to the chagrin of HRC and her corrupt cronies.

Although the 2016 election in Pennsylvania might well be close-fought, demographic trends are similar to the nation as a whole, with a diminishing White electorate impacting Republican ambitions in future national elections.

 

Demographics

Pennsylvania is currently home to 12.8 million inhabitants. There are 9.9M Whites (77%), a modest minority of Blacks 1.4M (11%), Hispanics 872k (6.8%), and Asians 647k (5%). Since the 1965 Hart-Celler Act, which opened the floodgates to Third World immigrants, the White proportion in the state has gone from a solid 91% in 1970 and is slated to reach 62% in 2050, as seen in Fig 1.

 

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Fig 1. Whites dwindle while Hispanics and Asians grow.

 

Akin to the demographic patterns of White decline we documented in Florida and Texas, Pennsylvania is also experiencing a steady, albeit slower decline of Whites, dwindling from a high of 10.7M in 1972, to its current population of 9.9M. We project this trend will continue, with the White population shedding a further million by 2050. Blacks populations are predicted to remain stable at approximately 11%, with a forecast high of 1.59M in 2040; a growth of 12% in 24 years. Hispanics and Asians are the drivers of population growth in the state, with a nine-fold increase for Hispanic and a sixteen-fold (!) increase for Asians since 1970. We predict that this explosive growth will continue into the future, with Hispanic and Asian numbers reaching 2.65M and 1.2M by 2050 respectively. Both ethnicities will go from demographically negligible in 1970 to as much as 18% and 8.5% of the total population.

 

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Fig 2. Slowly but surely, Whites are being replaced

 

The geographical pattern of White displacement

As the overwhelmingly White western half of the state shrinks in population, the increasingly non-white east is growing. The rural areas to the north and east of Pittsburgh, which lies on the western end of the state, experienced declines of 4% or more in population from 2000 to 2007. Meanwhile, eastern parts of the state, such as the Allentown-Scranton-Reading region, the Harrisburg-York-Lancaster region, and the Philadelphia suburbs experienced population growth from 2000 to 2007. In some counties, this growth was over 6% in the aforementioned time span.

Ultimately, the populations of conservative areas of Pennsylvania are shrinking while the populations of liberal areas of Pennsylvania are growing, the development of which is clearly displayed below:
 

White Displacement 1970-2050

 

The Amish Bloc

This trend, however, is not universal.  One conservative segment of the population in Pennsylvania is growing rapidly, and may have a large impact on the 2016 race. This segment is the Amish.

The Amish, or Pennsylvania Dutch as they are often known, are a self-isolating religious sect, situated mostly in Lancaster County and the surrounding areas. They adhere to strict prohibitions on modern technology, like telephones, automobiles, and electricity. Instead of cars, they often travel in buggies, which are common sights in areas with large Amish populations. Understandably, this has suppressed Amish turnout for Presidential elections, and it is estimated that their turnout in 2004 was somewhere around 10%.

The Amish in Pennsylvania have, over the past several years, experienced a massive increase in their population.  From 2011 to 2016, the Amish population in Pennsylvania has increased from 61k to 71k, a number which due to the tight margins, may well swing the state Trumps way in 2016, and attempts have been made by Trump supporters to increase turnout among the Amish for the upcoming election.

Due to the conservative views held by the Amish on the issues of gay marriage, abortion, and social issues in general, Amish are exclusively republican voters, so if Trump is successful, we might observe a political event rare enough to merit a likening to The Ents Marching to War on Election Day.

 

Politics

It’s well known that Pennsylvania rests firmly in the Democrat column. The coalition of working class urban Whites has effectively cancelled out the rural White Republicans in every election since 1988, with the minority racial vote delivering the knockout punch. This has been possible due to effective bloc voting, which makes the minority vote much more effective compared to the relatively small size of their population. The result has been a slow but steady decline in the Republican voter share:

 

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Fig 3. Republicans are being outvoted by fellow whites and a steadily increasing minority

 
However, this same method is also quite fragile. Increasing anti-White attitudes, both implicit from the Democrat leadership, and explicit from minority activist groups has the potential to effect legacy White voting patterns moving forward. The Democrats approach has effectively maxed out their minority voter potential in the state (96% of Blacks and 78% of Hispanics), and made it extremely hard for them to grow their voter base any further.

Not unlike the rest of the nation, Pennsylvania is ripe for a political realignment, and indeed the White vote has been slowly turning year by year. The GOP would be wise to capitalize on these trends. Resources invested into Pennsylvania with the explicit purpose catering to White interests and turnout has enormous potential for the GOP, which has heretofore been unwilling to accept that Whites are the only demographic group which responds to conservative political messaging.

Should the GOP refuse to embrace and cater to the White electorate, the ramifications of not doing so are severe. The majority of the South is slowly succumbing to a horde of Democrat voting minorities, and securing the 20 votes from Pennsylvania will become increasingly vital in order for Republicans to have any path to victory in national politics.

 

>>>GIF to be added<<<

Pennsylvanias current trajectory.

 

As this model shows, 2016 will be a blue win based on racial turnout in the past, but all things are not equal. Trump has recognized the potential in the Pennsylvania, effectively speaking to the concerns of the working-class Whites in the area, and by so doing, it is our opinion that Trump has latched onto a successful way to capture the state.

 

Conclusion

Though long considered a Democratic stronghold, the blue stranglehold on the state is precarious. With a minority vote that is completely tapped out, Democrats are forced to try and suppress Republican voters because of their inability to pander to Whites whilst simultaneously keeping their minorities happy.

There’s still a healthy majority of Whites in the Pennsylvania. A combination of an anemic economy (especially in rural areas), the outsourced manufacturing sector (initiated under NAFTA in the 90s), illegal immigration, and the radicalization of minority groups during the Obama administration will likely result in increasing numbers of Whites choosing to take their own side. Should this occur, it will be enough to shift the entire state with relative ease. It is our contention that eight years under the “Weather Underground” wing of the left, led by Obama, combined with the recent BLM movement, a strong Amish turnout, as well as pro-White the messaging of the Trump campaign, Pennsylvania could flip reliably red.

For the Republican Party, it remains to stress the obvious: Start catering to your own core voters and you’d be surprised at which states could come back into play.
 

With special thanks to Jonathan Nugent

 
-Lauritz Von Guildhausen and Rabbi High Comma

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